Detecting Emotional Evolution on Twitter during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Text Analysis.

Early in 2020, an unexpected and hazardous situation occurred threatening and challenging all of humankind. A new coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in Wuhan, China, and its related disease, called COVID-19, has induced one of the most dangerous crises at a global level since World War II. The ultra-fast transmission rate of the virus and the high mortality rate led the World Health Organization (WHO) to officially declare the situation a pandemic. Governments, for their part, were forced to implement unprecedented mobility restrictions and cease a large part of their economic activities. These facts triggered multiple reactions from people who expressed their feelings mainly through social networks (like Twitter), using them as vectors of information and opinion. In this paper, a study carried out in different Spanish speaking countries (Chile, Mexico, Peru, and Spain) is presented, which addresses the manner in which the evolution of the pandemic outbreak has affected the emotions expressed by individuals on Twitter over the last 13 months (from March 2020 to March 2021). We used a total of 3 million tweets to achieve this task. We made use of a well-known framework called EmoWeb to capture the dynamic variation in the sentimental value of pandemic-related words. The results reflect to what degree the pandemic and its derived problems have influenced and affected the population of the selected countries in different ways. The outcomes also illustrate the evolution over time of opinions published on Twitter regarding several topics related to COVID-19.

Health Sufficiency Indicators for Pandemic Monitoring.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 disease, spreading all around the world and causing a worldwide pandemic, has lead to the collapse of the health systems of the most affected countries. Due to the ease of transmission, early prevention measures are proved to be fundamental to control the pandemic and, hence, the saturation of the health systems. Given the difficulty of obtaining characteristics of these systems of different countries and regions, it is necessary to define indicators based on basic information that enable the assessment of the evolution of the impact of a disease in a health system along with fair comparisons among different ones. This present paper introduces the Health Sufficiency Indicator (HSI), in its accumulated and daily versions. This indicator measures the additional pressure that a health care system has to deal with due to a pandemic. Hence, it allows to evaluate the capacity of a health system to give response to the corresponding needs arising from a pandemic and to compare the evolution of the disease among different regions. In addition, the Potential Occupancy Ratio (POR) in both its hospital ward bed and ICU bed versions is here introduced to asses the impact of the pandemic in the capacity of hospitals. These indicators and other well-known ones are applied to track the evolution of the impact of the disease on the Spanish health system during the first wave of the pandemic, both on national and regional levels. An international comparison among the most affected countries is also performed.

Predictive Model of Gait Recovery at One Month after Hip Fracture from a National Cohort of 25,607 Patients: The Hip Fracture Prognosis (HF-Prognosis) Tool.

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of gait recovery after hip fracture. Data was obtained from a sample of 25,607 patients included in the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry from 2017 to 2019. The primary outcome was recovery of the baseline level of ambulatory capacity. A logistic regression model was developed using 40% of the sample and the model was validated in the remaining 60% of the sample. The predictors introduced in the model were: age, prefracture gait independence, cognitive impairment, anesthetic risk, fracture type, operative delay, early postoperative mobilization, weight bearing, presence of pressure ulcers and destination at discharge. Five groups of patients or clusters were identified by their predicted probability of recovery, including the most common features of each. A probability threshold of 0.706 in the training set led to an accuracy of the model of 0.64 in the validation set. We present an acceptably accurate predictive model of gait recovery after hip fracture based on the patients' individual characteristics. This model could aid clinicians to better target programs and interventions in this population.